10: The Paris Agreement and Its Implementation
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- 41706
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)DAVID G. VICTOR UC San Diego
- Cite the importance of international agreements. You will learn why effective action on climate change is unlikely to arise from countries and firms acting alone. From that understanding comes the need for cooperation and different strategies for achieving cooperation.
- Understand the history and implications of the Paris Agreement. You will learn the basic history of attempts at international cooperation on climate change, starting with the negotiations leading to the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change followed by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to that Convention. You will learn why those earlier efforts did not have much practical impact and then look at the process leading up to the Paris Agreement. There are many excellent resources online, including the texts of all these agreements at the Climate Change Secretariat (www.unfccc.int). There are also detailed articles on the diplomatic history in the sources section of this chapter. The learning emphasis in this chapter will be on the political forces that explain why these different types of agreements exist.
- Demonstrate the challenges to international agreements. This chapter will offer many reasons to be optimistic about the future for the Paris Agreement—even as the United States under the Trump administration begins the process of withdrawal. Nonetheless, it is important to understand the fundamental challenges to any international agreement—in particular, challenges related to whether countries will honor their pledges, and whether their actions will lead others to do more. A key learning objective is to develop the skills critical to understanding when agreements will be implemented (and not), and what will happen as key provisions are not honored.
Overview
For nearly 30 years there have been international diplomatic talks on climate change. So far, those talks have had very little real impact on the emissions that cause climate warming. This chapter will explain why international cooperation is needed, along with different strategies for improving cooperation. Crucial to predicting the success or failure of cooperation is understanding the interests of countries and whether cooperation advances or undermines those interests. In general, the most ambitious agreements are those that will be seen by some countries as contrary to their interests, which is why there are so many bold statements and agreements to act on climate warming but little change in behavior. New technologies, which lower the cost of action, along with fuller political mobilization, can alter how countries calculate their interests and lead, over time, to more effective international cooperation. With this theory of change in mind, the chapter will explain why the Paris Agreement is widely expected to be more effective than earlier agreements—because Paris allows countries to tailor their commitments to what they are willing and able to implement and because the Paris process has mobilized substantial political and technological attention to the problem of climate warming and the challenge of reducing emissions. Nonetheless, none of the major Western countries that have been leaders on climate change are on track to meet the pledges they made under the Paris Agreement; worldwide, those pledges aren’t nearly robust enough to stop warming at 2°C, a widely discussed goal. The political reality of climate change is that policy action is unlikely to come fast enough to halt warming soon, and thus societies will be forced to make massive adjustments to climate impacts.