12.2: Tracking and forcasting hurricanes

Indeed, California is spared most of the hazards produced by Hurricanes. This isn’t the case for the entire East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States. In early October of 2018, the Florida Panhandle experienced the wrath of Hurricane Michael, which underwent a major period of rapid intensification prior to making landfall.
Figure 12.2.1 is an advisory map for Michael, which contains information regarding its location, intensity, wind speed, direction of travel along with its projected path and intensity, and any watches or warnings issued for the storm. This advisory was issued at 7PM Central Daylight Time on Sunday, October 7, 2018.

Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\): Advisory Map of Michael issued at 7PM CDT on Sunday, October 7, 2018. (Public Domain; National Hurricane Center). Alternative description of image. 

 

6. At the time of this advisory (Figure 12.2.1), Michael was a:
   1. Tropical Depression (D)   
   2. Tropical Storm (S)
   3. Hurricane (H)   
   4. Major Hurricane (M)

The scale used to rate tropical cyclones is called the Saffir-Simpson scale, which classifies storms based on their current wind speed. The list of classifications are provided in Table 12.2.1.

Table 12.2.1: Tropical cyclone intensities according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Classification	Wind Speed
Tropical Depression	Below 39mph
Tropical Storm	39-73mph
Category 1 Hurricane	74-95mph
Category 2 Hurricane	96-110mph
Category 3 Major Hurricane	111-129mph
Category 4 Major Hurricane	130-156mph
Category 5 Major Hurricane	Above 156mph

7. The storm was located (the orange circle with the black dot in the middle):
   1. In the Western Gulf of Mexico
   2. Just off the Coast of Florida
   3. Between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba   
   4. Near Antarctica
8. The blue outlining on the coastlines mentioned in question 7 indicates that those regions were under a ________ .
   1. Tropical Storm Watch   
   2. Tropical Storm Warning
   3. Hurricane Watch   
   4. Hurricane Warning

Watches and Warnings are issued by local governments (in the United States, the National Hurricane Center is responsible for issuing watches) based on the following criteria in Table 12.2.2

Table 12.2.2: Different tropical cyclone advisories and what they mean.

Advisory Type	What it means
Tropical Storm Watch	Tropical Storm Conditions Possible within 48 hours
Tropical Storm Warning	Tropical Storm Conditions Expected within 36 hours
Hurricane Watch	Hurricane Conditions Possible within 48 hours
Hurricane Warning	Hurricane Conditions Expected within 36 hours

9. At 7pm CDT on Sunday, October 7, 2019 (Figure 3), the storm was __________________ from striking the U.S. Gulf Coast. Therefore, watches and warnings could not be issued yet.
   1. Less than 36 hours away
   2. Between 36 and 48 hours away
   3. More than 48 hours away
10. At 7pm CDT on Sunday, October 7, 2019, Michael was forecast to ____ on Wednesday:
    1. Hit Texas as a Tropical Storm   
    2. Hit Florida as a Hurricane
    3. Completely dissipate (die off)   
    4. Hit Florida as a Major Hurricane 

Take a look at Michael’s forecast position and intensity for 1am on Tuesday on Figure 12.2.1 (indicated by the location of the big black dot with an “H” in the middle of it). Figure 12.2.2 is the advisory issued at 1am on Tuesday, October 9, 2018.

Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\): 1am CDT Advisory for Michael on October 9, 2018. (Public Domain; National Hurricane Center). Alternative description of image. 

11. By the time of Figure 12.2.2, Michael had:
    1. Weakened into a Tropical Depression
    2. Remained a Tropical Storm
    3. Strengthened into a Hurricane
    4. Strengthened into a Major Hurricane (to check, look at the wind speed).
12. It’s location at the time of Figure 4 was ________ from the forecast location at 7pm on Sunday, October 7, 2018.
    1. Within a few degrees of longitude and latitude
    2. Many degrees of longitude and latitude
13. At this point, _____ have been issued for parts of the United States, Particularly Florida and Alabama. 
    1. Hurricane Warnings
    2. Tropical Storm Warnings
    3. Tropical Storm Watches
    4. All of these
14. As of this time, Michael was expected to strike the Florida Panhandle as a:
    1. Tropical Storm
    2. Hurricane   
    3. Major Hurricane

Figure 12.2.3 is the 7am CDT Advisory for Wednesday, October 10, 2018, just hours prior to Michael making landfall.

Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\): 7am CDT Advisory map for Michael on Wednesday, October 10, 2018. (Public Domain; National Hurricane Center). Alternative description of image.

15. At the time of Figure 10.2.3, Michael __________ intensify into a Major Hurricane, as was forecasted in Figure 10.2.2 (Hint: look at the wind speed… not just the title)
    1. Did
    2. Did Not
16. At the time, Michael was a __________ hurricane (refer to table 12.2.1 for classification).
    1. Category 1   
    2. Category 2   
    3. Category 3   
    4. Category 4
17. After making landfall, Michael was forecast to:
    1. Travel west and strike Texas as a Major Hurricane
    2. Travel Northeast and Gradually Weaken
    3. Remain Stationary near the Florida Coastline as a Major Hurricane

Any time an active storm is present, you can visit the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center webpage at National Hurricane Center, which provides a map of current storms and a plethora of information about the current and forecast position and intensity of hurricanes. The images above were retrieved by accessing the archive page, which can be found by clicking the “Archive” link on the NHC homepage or by following this link.