Skip to main content
Geosciences LibreTexts

1.7.1: Activity

  • Page ID
    15917
  • \( \newcommand{\vecs}[1]{\overset { \scriptstyle \rightharpoonup} {\mathbf{#1}} } \) \( \newcommand{\vecd}[1]{\overset{-\!-\!\rightharpoonup}{\vphantom{a}\smash {#1}}} \)\(\newcommand{\id}{\mathrm{id}}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \( \newcommand{\kernel}{\mathrm{null}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\range}{\mathrm{range}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\RealPart}{\mathrm{Re}}\) \( \newcommand{\ImaginaryPart}{\mathrm{Im}}\) \( \newcommand{\Argument}{\mathrm{Arg}}\) \( \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\| #1 \|}\) \( \newcommand{\inner}[2]{\langle #1, #2 \rangle}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \(\newcommand{\id}{\mathrm{id}}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \( \newcommand{\kernel}{\mathrm{null}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\range}{\mathrm{range}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\RealPart}{\mathrm{Re}}\) \( \newcommand{\ImaginaryPart}{\mathrm{Im}}\) \( \newcommand{\Argument}{\mathrm{Arg}}\) \( \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\| #1 \|}\) \( \newcommand{\inner}[2]{\langle #1, #2 \rangle}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\)

    Positive Probability

    For each of the underlined phrases or words in the Oklahoma Earthquake article (reproduced below), please assign a number between 1 and 100 to describe the positive probability you think is being associated with that word. For example, if you think the phrase “almost certain” means 90% certain, write down the number 90. Or, for example, if you think the phrase “almost certain” means 50% certain, write down 50. For example, if you think "cannot" means that there is zero chance of it happening, write down the number 0. Or if you think "cannot" means there is still a 5% chance that it might happen, write down the number 5.

    • May
    • Concluded
    • Likely
    • Probably
    • Will not Cause
    • Cannot
    • Can cause
    • Can be
    • Very possible
    • Most likely
    Answer

    ANSWER: There are no right or wrong answers. However, below is is a plot that compares the probability values a scientist assigned to the words in the Oklahoma Earthquake article, to the values assigned by a group of non-scientists. The dots in red are the values assigned by the scientist. The dots in white are the values assigned by the non-scientists. Sometimes dots plot on top of each other so that’s why it looks like not all rows have the same number of responses. Please note, scientists disagree too! With this in mind, the values assigned by the scientist for this exercise, may differ from the values another scientist might assign. 

    plot of probability values based on table above

    Plot of probability values assigned to words

    Credit: Eliza Richardson


    1.7.1: Activity is shared under a not declared license and was authored, remixed, and/or curated by LibreTexts.

    • Was this article helpful?